In the era of global carbon neutrality and the rapid penetration of new energy vehicles, the lithium-ion battery industry continues to thrive. Power batteries, in particular, play a pivotal role in driving this growth. As the industry matures, technological innovations in power batteries are transitioning from policy-driven initiatives to market-driven forces. Supply-side companies are actively positioning themselves to advance the mid to long-term development of lithium-ion batteries.
I. Mid-term Developments in Lithium-ion Batteries
Material Iterations and Structural Innovations
When looking at the mid-term development of lithium-ion batteries, advancements in energy density are primarily driven by iterative upgrades of existing material systems and structural innovations aimed at increasing efficiency and reducing costs.
Material Iterations
The breakthrough in positive electrode materials holds the most potential for a disruptive improvement in energy density. In the short to medium term, positive electrode materials will continue to coexist between lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials, with technical iterations built upon the existing chemical systems. High-nickel ternary materials transitioning from semi-solid to solid-state form still offer promising value and extensive prospects.
Structural Innovations
Under the umbrella of matured lithium-ion battery material systems, structural improvements and simplifications in battery cores, modules, and packaging methods are underway to enhance overall battery system performance. Innovations like BYD’s blade battery and CATL’s CTP technology represent critical avenues of technological development alongside material iterations.
II. Long-term Developments in Lithium-ion Batteries
Toward Solid-State Batteries
Long-term development in the lithium-ion battery industry is characterized by a clear trend towards reducing the content of liquid electrolytes and transitioning to solid-state batteries. However, solid-state batteries still face substantial technical challenges.
The Clarity of the Solid-State Trend
Solid-state batteries offer significant advantages over traditional liquid-based batteries in terms of energy density and safety. Players throughout the lithium-ion battery industry are actively increasing their R&D investments to position themselves within the solid-state battery technology landscape. Currently, the industry is in the transition phase from semi-solid to fully solid-state development.
Challenges in Achieving Full Solid-State Batteries
While there is a consensus within the industry about the trend towards solid-state batteries, overcoming critical technical challenges such as interface impedance poses a substantial barrier to achieving full-scale production. From a practical perspective, considering both technical difficulties and cost concerns, achieving extremely low liquid electrolyte content in hybrid solid-liquid batteries might be a more commercially viable solution.
III. Diversifying with Sodium-ion Batteries
Addressing Lithium Resource Constraints
Looking into the distant future of lithium-ion battery development, the scarcity of lithium resources will be a significant constraint. Sodium-ion batteries are emerging as a crucial alternative, complementing lithium-ion batteries.
Sodium-ion Complementarity
Sodium-ion batteries offer a marked advantage in resource abundance and cost-efficiency. However, their chemical systems currently limit their energy density, making it challenging to compete with lithium-ion batteries in passenger vehicle applications. Nonetheless, sodium-ion batteries have the potential to replace lithium-ion batteries in scenarios with lower energy density requirements or in mid to low-end markets. They are expected to first achieve large-scale commercial applications in energy storage and low-speed vehicles.
Conclusion
In conclusion, as the world transitions towards carbon neutrality and electric mobility, the lithium-ion battery industry is poised for continuous growth and innovation. Mid-term developments focus on material enhancements and structural improvements, while long-term prospects involve the transition to solid-state batteries and the emergence of sodium-ion alternatives. These trends reflect the industry’s commitment to sustainability, efficiency, and resource diversification as it shapes the future of energy storage solutions.
